- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bearish
- 55% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 52% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: Quiet Friday
Due to release of better than anticipated data on the US Core Retail Sales, the currency rate ended previous trading session near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. As for today the pair is not expected to make any significant moves because of various technical indicators that obstruct movement in both directions.
The US Dollar touched its weakest point against the Euro, following the stronger-than-expected retail sales report. The EUR/USD exchange rate rose 23 base points to the 1.1855 area, but reversed an upward trend to be seen trading below the 1.1800 mark.
The US retail sales expended more than anticipated in November, amid the brisk start of holiday season, suggesting that sustained economic strength could set the stage for further Fed's rate hikes in 2018. The Commerce Department stated that the country's retail sales increased 0.8% in November, following an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in the prior month, as households bought range of goods, while cutting motor purchases.
Empty calendar
There are no macroeconomic data releases planned for today.
EUR/USD falls below 200-hour SMA
Due to dovish comments made by the ECB as well as publication of better than expected result on the American Core Retail Sales, the currency rate managed to break combined support level formed by the weekly and monthly PP as well as three other moving averages. In result of this plunge, the pair has formed two junior ascending channels, which presuppose continuation of an upward movement towards the upper boundary of a dominant descending channel. However, today an absence of any important fundamental events as well pressure from the above technical indicators suggest that the rate is likely to continue moving towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1760. In support of this assumption, 55% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to sell.
Hourly Chart
In result of the previous trading day, the pair plunged to below the weekly and monthly PP as well as 100-day SMA. Accordingly, it is expected to continue to moving towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1760. In larger perspective, the bearish movement is also expected to continue. The first reason is that the pair is trading in a senior descending channel. The second reason is that it has simultaneously formed the head and shoulders pattern, which also presupposes further decline.
Daily Chart
Market sentiment is bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment has slightly increased, as 54% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 60% bearish and the Dollar is 52% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 55% (-1%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are bearish on this currency pair with 56% (-1%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility