- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 56% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 52% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: ECB Draghi Speaks
The currency exchange rate is rise in a large ascending channel. As there are no fundamental data releases planned for today, the pair is generally expected to tend to reach combined resistance level formed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly R1.
The EUR/USD exchange rate was little changed on the US housing market data release on Friday. On the report, the Euro fell 0.03% against the US Dollar, continuing the side move up to the 0.53% drop sparked by exacerbating political uncertainty in Germany, as Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to form a three-way coalition.
The Commerce Department said that the US homebuilding rose to the highest level of the year in October, where housing starts jumped 13.7% to a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 1.29M units, while building permits added 5.9% to a 1.30M unit rate in October. Strong figures were expected to contribute to stronger economic expansion in the US over the course of the Q4.
Quiet Monday
There are no fundamental data released planned for today. The only event that might be worth following will start at 14:00 GMT when the ECB President Mario Draghi will start to testify on the economy and monetary policy before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
EUR/USD falls as Merkel fails to form coalition
As the currency pair did not have any fundamental background that could justify a rapid move, it finished the week near the 55-hour SMA. However, in early hours of the new trading session it broke though combined support set up by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the weekly PP and approached the bottom boundary of a three-week long ascending channel. The reason for such sudden fall was based on news about Merkel's failure to form a three-party coalition. Nevertheless, such weakening of the Euro is expected to have limited effect, as the above lower support line is additionally secured by the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP located at the psychological 1.1700 level. At the same time, the rebound is unlikely to proceed above the 1.1760 mark especially when this area will become protected by the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
Hourly Chart
On daily chart it the Euro is continuing to gain value against the Dollar in new ascending channel. Today the pressure from 55-day SMA might prevail. However, a full-fledged rebound is likely to happen only when the rate will reach combined resistance level formed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the monthly R1.
Daily Chart
Traders stay bearish
In result of the previous trading session the bearish market sentiment slightly increased, as 57% of open positions are short now.
In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: the Euro is 64% bearish and the Dollar is 52% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 63% (+0%) of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are neutrally bearish on this currency pair with 58% (+0%) of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility