- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bearish
- 55% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- 54% of traders remain bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: US Final GDP and Unemployment Claims
As majority of pending orders are set to sell, the Greenback continues to appreciate against the Euro. The fact that the pair broke two senior descending channels indicates that the downfall might continue. On the other hand, market sentiment day-by-day becomes less bearish, which means that in the nearest future the currency rate might make a full-fledged rebound and resume the surge.
Upbeat US reports on Durable Goods Orders for August allowed the US Dollar to strengthen its position against the Euro. Following the release, the EUR/USD lost 15 base points or 0.13% to touch the intraday low of 1.1720. Despite temporary retreat to the 1.1770 mark, the pair remained under bearish sentiment, revealing no signals for a reversal on Thursday morning.
The Commerce Department showed that new orders for the US-made capital goods rose more than anticipated 1.7% over the month of August, while shipments continued to increase, suggesting the strengthening of the US economy, despite an expected drag from Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. Moreover, sign of rising spending on equipment buoyed expectations for the Fed's December rate hike.
US Final GDP announcement
The only notable macroeconomic data release for the given currency pair will happen today at 12:30 GMT when the Bureau of Economic Analysis will reveal the US Final GDP, which is expected to remain at 3% growth rate. Although this is very important release from fundamental point of view, but from technical perspective this event usually does not cause any particularly high market reaction.
EUR/USD encounters 100% Fibo near 1.1715
Unfortunately for the Euro, a shared border of two senior descending channels did not manage to withhold the rate from falling to the south. However, this plunge did not last for long, as the currency pair made a turnaround apparently form the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1715. Given that this barrier is additionally secured by the monthly S1 at 1.1692 and the weekly S3 at 1.1688, the further appreciation of the buck seems unlikely. On the other hand, the surge in the opposite direction is similarly obstructed by the weekly S2 at 1.1774 and the slipping 55-hour SMA. For this reason, the pair might move horizontally for some time waiting for a strong impulse, which can be provided, for instance, by release of data on the US Final GDP.
Hourly Chart
During the previous trading session, the currency pair made an expected rebound from the 100% Fibonacci retracement level located at the 1.1715 mark. Such rebound might signify the end of the weekly fall and beginning of a new short-term recovery of the Euro. If scenario will be confirmed, the in upcoming months the pair might form a double top figure.
Daily Chart
Traders remain bearish on the pair
The bearish market sentiment is gradually losing its power, as 52% of only open positions are short. In the meantime, the outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is the following: Euro is 57% bearish, while for the Dollar 54% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 63% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 54% of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility