- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish
- 65% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to BUY
- 59.50% of traders are bullish on the Dollar
- Upcoming Events: Empty day
Last Friday the currency pair expectedly ended in a red zone, reaching a combination of the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP at 1.1999 From a daily perspective, the buck is expected to continue recovering against the Euro. However, in the short run this attempt most likely will be neutralized by the 100- or 200-hour SMAs.
EUR/USD revealed muted reaction on the ECB rate announcement ahead of the Central Bank's policy statement. . However, the first half an hour of the Mario Draghi speech put the European single currency 72 pips higher against the US dollar, while the further course of press conference managed to keep the Euro above the 1.2000 level. The ECB President Mario Draghi noted that volatility in the Euro exchange rate was a source of unclarity, causing the necessity to monitor the FX rate impact on price stability being very important for inflation targets and growth. Mr. Draghi stated that underlying inflation trends had improved, but continued to be relatively subdued, while confidence surrounding the future economic growth remained strong.
Another silent Monday
Surprisingly, but today there will be no macroeconomic data releases at all, including those that concern the European and North American continents. However, Dukascopy Research Team welcomes everyone to join our webinar at 12:30 GMT to discuss a number of trade pattern ideas as well as to take a look at other important fundamental events that are scheduled in an economic calendar for this week.
EUR/USD slips to weekly PP at 1.1999
On Friday, the currency exchange rate acted in accordance with one of the scenarios, which suggested that as soon as markets will calm down the buck is going to try restoring some lost positions. Indeed, after failing to jump above the monthly R1 at 1.2099 the pair switched a direction and ended the week near the combined support level set up by the 55-hour SMA and the updated weekly PP at 1.1999. It seems that the turnaround was partially attributed to clash with the upper boundary of a medium-term rising wedge, which can be clearly seen on a daily timeframe. From this larger perspective the rate is expected to continue to gradually slip to the bottom. However, in the short run these attempts most likely will be neutralized by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs.
Hourly Chart
On a daily chart the currency pair confirmed dominance of a junior ascending channel. To be precise, some time ago it has gradually transformed into a rising wedge, whose lower support line simultaneously represents the bottom trend-line of a larger ascending channel. In this context, the pair is expected to continue to move in the downward direction, trying to reach an area around 1.1950.
Daily Chart
Traders still bearish on the pair
The SWFX market sentiment slightly increased since yesterday and now is 59% bearish. In the meantime, the outlook for the Euro is 61% bearish, while for the Dollar 59.50% bullish.
Traders of OANDA remain bearish, as 65% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO are also bearish on this currency pair with 61% of open short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility