- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bearish
- 59.77% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.1800
- Upcoming Events: US Core Durable Goods Orders ; Fed Chair Yellen's Speech; ECB President Draghi's Speech
The day of the yearly central banker meeting has come. Today the EUR/USD currency pair will surely be affected by the speeches of the heads of the central banks. However, before that the US Durable Goods Orders data sets will be published. Meanwhile, it has to be noted that the technical charts are showing that the EUR/USD pair is most likely going to fall.
Home resales in the US disappointed market expectations, falling to the lowest level of 2017. However, the report had a little impact on the EUR/USD currency pair, where the Greenback lost against the Euro only 4 base points or 0.04%, but rapidly revenged losses and continued the Friday's session below the 1.1800 level.
The National Association of Realtors reported that the US existing home sales dropped 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted yearly rate of 5.44M in July, missing expectations for an increase to 5.55M units. A decrease was caused by the lack of available properties for sale, which limited the housing market recovery and forced price surge to notable outpace wage growth, while overall demand for housing remained strong.
US Durable Goods and Jackson Hole
After a rather quiet week for fundamental swing traders, this Friday is set to dictate the markets. However, the most important fundamental events will take the form of a speech, and there is no concrete candle to speculate on.
Although, at 12:30 GMT, before the speeches in the US, the US Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders data sets will be published. This data release will be covered on the Dukascopy live webinar platform, as a part of the Friday's research webinar.
The most important thing to look at on Friday will be the speeches of the heads of the central bankers in Jackson Hole, where a symposium of bankers will take place. At 16:00 GMT Janet Yellen is set to give a speech. Afterwards, at 19:00 GMT ECB President Mario Draghi will give a speech.
EUR/USD prepares for Draghi and Yellen speeches
An hourly chart reveals that the Euro is moving against the American Dollar in a short-term symmetrical triangle, as traders await both Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen speeches that will be delivered later this day at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
From a technical perspective, a breakout to the downside direction seems more possible, as the currency pair experiences pressure from the 55- and 100-hour SMAs from the upside. If the downfall happens, then it should be stopped by the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1714.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart is the one, which was adjusted during the recent surge of the Euro. The reason for that is the fact that the high levels, not closing prices, of the daily chart are better to be used in pattern drawing in the case of the EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, in regards to the daily timeframe, it has to be noted that the 20-day SMA on Thursday morning was providing support at the 1.1780 mark. That is consistent with the lower trend line of the drawn triangle.
Daily Chart
Markets are bearish on the pair
The SWFX trader open positions are 57% short. Meanwhile, on Friday 53.08% of pending commands are to sell.
Traders of OANDA remain largely bearish, as 65.61% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are also not changing their opinion, as 62.73% of traders are short, compared to 61.85% previously.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility