A steady decline in EUR/USD has been the prevailing trend since February, with the pair falling below the 1.14200 level.
Economic Calendar Analysis
Volatility may increase primarily following the results of the U.S. 10-year Treasury auction, which could provide further directional guidance for overall U.S. dollar demand. In addition, next week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision is likely to increase dollar volatility. However, only a deviation from the widely expected decision to hold rates unchanged is likely to trigger a meaningful repricing of risk during Q3.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis
The EUR/USD daily chart reflects an established bearish market structure, with price action continuously suppressed beneath a multi-month descending trendline and a sloping 110-day Simple Moving Average at 1.1579. Following a sharp drop in June, pair consolidation has flattened into a tight horizontal range between immediate support at 1.1350 and overhead trendline resistance near 1.1450–1.1500, signaling low bullish momentum and keeping the broader path of least resistance directed downward.Bullish Case
- Support Defense: Buyers are actively defending the 1.1350 horizontal level, preventing a immediate breakdown to lower macro targets.
- Breakout Requirement: A decisive daily close above 1.1500 (trendline resistance) would signal a momentum shift and clear the way toward the 110 SMA and 1.1800 dynamic targets.
- Dominant Trend: Price continues to post lower highs along the light blue descending trendline, holding well below the declining 110-day SMA.
- Breakdown Trigger: A daily close below 1.1350 support would confirm a bearish continuation, targeting major macro support at 1.1250.
Daily Chart
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The daily chart for IEF exhibits a bearish-to-neutral setup, as price action remains capped below a descending trendline and the 60-day SMA near $94.00–$94.50, while weakening MACD momentum signals persistent downside pressure. Price is currently testing immediate horizontal support at $93.00, a decisive daily close below this level would confirm a bearish breakdown toward major support at $91.25, whereas a breakout above $94.50 would be required to negate the downtrend and shift bias to the upside.IEF.US/USD Chart
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