Average Hourly Earnings were forecast to show a monthly increase of 0.3%. The actual income change is just 0.2%. Non-Farm Employment Change was expected to show a reading of 176,000 new jobs. The reality is that only 114,000 new jobs have been created. Market consensus was that the Unemployment Rate would be at 4.1%. Released number shows unemployment at 4.3%.
These data sets cut short gold's attempt to reach the all-time high levels near 2,380.00. The price of gold plummeted in the following market asset sell off and almost reached the 2,410.00 level, before a recovery started. Friday's trading was ended above 2,440.00. Economic Calendar Analysis
On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management will publish the Services sector Purchasing Managers Index. The index is the result of survey of top 300 managers in the services sector. A reading above 50.0 is positive. A reading below 50.0 is seen as negative.
Market conensus forecast is that the reading will be a positive 51.4. A reading below this number should cause a decline of the US Dollar.
Besides the mentioned event,the secodn week of August lacks notable events. The only event that could cause a market reaction is the publication of the weekly US Unemployment Claims on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
If the recovery continues, the metal would have to pass above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 2,450.00 level, before approaching the high levels near 2,480.00. In addition, note that the 2,460.00 level had acted as resistance during last week.
On the other hand, a decline of the commodity price is expected to look for support in the 100-hour simple moving average. Further below, the 200-hour SMA might stop a decline, before the price reaches the 2,390.00/2,400.00 range.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal is finding support in the range below it. The fundamental event was not enough to cause a move below it.Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain short
After the US employment release, 71% of volume was in short positions. The pending orders were 75% to sell the metal.
During late-Thursday's trading, the postions were 71% to sell. In the meantime, pending orders were 71% to sell.