At the start of 2024, notable events start on Wednesday. At 15:00 GMT, watch the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index survey results and the JOLTS Job Openings number. Note that the two releases could cause a major impact, if both shows either better or worse than expected data.
On the same day, some impact could be created by the publication of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes publication. The Meeting Minutes are a protocol of the US monetary policy maker's last meeting. It can reveal additional information on future US base interest rate policy.
On Thursday, the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is capable of impacting the markets. The Automatic Data Processing released number usually is a good indicator of what the US government data will show, as it occurs prior to the official publication of employment numbers. The event is scheduled for 13:15 GMT.
On Friday, the US monthly employment data sets will be published. The event is scheduled for 13:30 GMT.
They are bound to impact the financial markets via the value of the US Dollar. Namely, good data reveals that inflation might return and the Fed would have to keep rates high or even cut. This would cause a surge of the Dollar. On the other hand, bad data would weaken the USD, as the Fed can cut rates.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
An extension of the ongoing decline is expected to find support in the 2,050.00 mark. Below 2,050.00, the 2,040.00 level and the 2,044.75/1,047.75 and 2,027.15/2,030.00 ranges are capable of acting as support.
However, a recovery of the metal is expected to face resistance in the 200-hour simple moving average and the 2,060.00 level. Higher above, take into account the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages near 2,065.00 and 2,070.00.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, most recently the 2021 and 2022 high level range at 2,065.30/2,082.80 has been ignored by the metal.Daily Candle Chart
Gold traders are short
On Wednesday, 66% were short, as that proportion of open position volume was in short positions.
In the meantime, pending orders in the 1000-pip range around the current price were 74% to buy the metal.