EUR/USD surges, but traders expect a decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The resistance zone at 1.0950/1.0965 failed to hold, as the additional support of the 50-hour simple moving average approached. The follow up surge easily passed above the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.0982 and pierced the 1.1000 mark.

However, during the first half of Wednesday's trading the pair started a decline. In general, the bulls were taking gains, as they expected uncertainty from the upcoming release of the US Gross Domestic Data at 13:30 GMT. It is likely that by the time you are reading this, the data is out and has caused a move. Despite the event, note support and resistance zones.

Meanwhile, it was spotted that most Dukascopy traders were short, but had close by buy orders. 

Economic Calendar Analysis



On Wednesday, at 13:30 GMT, the US Preliminary quarterly GDP is expected to impact the financial markets through the value of the US Dollar.

On Thursday, the publication of the US Core PCE Price Index at 13:30 GMT is most likely going to cause a USD move, as the US monetary policymakers watch this indicator.

EUR/USD hourly chart analysis

The ongoing decline could look for support in the 1.0950/1.0965 range and the 50-hour simple moving average near 1.0970. Further below, take into account the 100-hour simple moving average near 1.0950 and the 200-hour SMA near 1.0930. Below the moving averages, the weekly simple pivot point at 1.0917 and the 1.0900 mark could act as support.

On the other hand, a resumption of the ongoing EUR/USD surge could be slowed down by the weekly R1 at 1.0982, the 1.1000 mark and the weekly R2 at 1.1030. Above these lone levels note the combination of the 1.1100 level and the weekly R3 simple pivot point at 1.1095.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the rate has passed above the 200-day simple moving average near 1.0830 and confirmed the SMA as support. Next target for a broader surge could be the 1.1100 mark and the 1.1250 level that have acted as resistance during summer.
Daily chart




Traders are still shorting

On Monday, the Swiss Foreign Exchange traders were 65% in short positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in a 100-point range around the current rate were 51% to sell the Euro against the US Dollar.

On Tuesday, the positions were 66% short, but orders were 52% to sell.

Prior to the GDP release, traders were 67% short and orders were 65% to buy. It appears that traders expected a decline, but had their stops and buy to open long positions close by.

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