GBP/USD recovers due to GDP data

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
On a month-on-month basis the United Kingdom gross domestic product has increased by 0.5%, instead of the market consensus forecast of 0.4%. The higher than forecast GDP revealed that the Bank of England has room for interest rate hikes. Due to that reason, the Pound surged against peer currencies. The GBP/USD surged nearly 34 base points or 0.27%.

Coincidentally, the event matched the pair finding support in the 100-hour simple moving average. By 10:00 GMT on Monday, the recovery had reached the 1.2280 level.

Economic Calendar



On Tuesday, at 07:00 GMT the UK unemployment claimant count change might impact the value of the Pound.

Afterwards, the US Consumer Price Inflation data is set to be published on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. The inflation is set to reveal whether the Federal Reserve is successful in its policy at reducing inflation.

On Wednesday morning, at 07:00 GMT, the UK Consumer Price Inflation is going to be published and is set to impact the Pound.

Later on, the top event of them all will take place. At 19:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve will release its Federal Open Market Committee Statement and Economic Projections. The central bank is expected to hike its base interest rate from 4.00% up to 4.50%.

On Thursday, at 12:00 GMT, the Bank of England is going to announce its interest rate decision. The central bank is most likely going to take into account the decision of the Federal Reserve. Note that the BoE and the ECB have scheduled their rate decision meetings in the aftermath of the US rate announcement.

Later on, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retails Sales data and Empire State Manufacturing Index might cause an adjustment in the value of the US Dollar.

The week will end with the publication of Markit Services and Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index survey data. United Kingdom data is set to be published at 09:30 GMT. The UK data is followed by US data at 14:45 GMT.

GBP/USD short-term view

An extension of the currency pair's recovery might be slowed down by the 1.2300 mark and the Friday's high level at 1.2320. Higher above, note the 1.2350 level and the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.2371.

On the other hand, a decline of the Pound against the US Dollar is expected to look for support first in the weekly simple pivot point at 1.2238 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Further below, the combination of the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages and the 1.2200 mark are highly likely to impact the rate.

Hourly Chart

GBP/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the pair has reached the summer high level zone at 1.2275/1.2330. As expected, it is acting as resistance.

Above the summer high level zone, take into account the April and May resistance at 1.2610/1.2660.
Daily chart


Traders remain short


On Friday, traders were bearish, as 63% of trader open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.

In the meantime, pending orders in a 100-base point range around the pair were 53% to sell the GBP/USD.

On Monday, traders were 60% short and pending orders were 54% to buy.

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