On Friday, the currency pair recovered and passed the resistance of the 1.1770, which slowed down the rate's recovery on Thursday. By the middle of European trading hours, the pair had reached the combined resistance of the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 1.1784 and the 55-hour simple moving average at 1.1790.
Economic Calendar Analysis
On Wednesday, the top event of all macroeconomic events will occur. The US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee is going to publish their Economic Projections, Statement and the Federal Funds Rate. This event has caused EUR/USD moves from 17.1 to 67.1 base points.
On Thursday, Markit Institute will publish their Purchasing Managers Indexes. The indexes are a result of survey of manufacturing and services sector managers about their outlook on their respective fields.
At 07:15 GMT, the French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be published. The immediate reaction to the event has been from 6.4 to 15.1 base points.
At 07:30 GMT, the German PMIs will be published. The German results have been the catalyst for moves from 6.8 to 17.8 points.
The PMI releases for Europe will end at 08:00 GMT, when the common Euro Zone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be published. The common PMIs cause muted reaction, as most occurs after the German data. Namely, the common EU data has caused 4.2 to 13.0 base point moves.
Also on Wednesday, at 12:30 GMT, the weekly US Unemployment Claims could cause minor increases of volatility. However, the range for the EUR/USD moves during the release has been from 5.4 to 11.1 base points. On average, the EUR/USD moves less than 10 points on its own, during no event environment.
The week's notable events will end with the US Markit PMI release. Namely, the US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs at 13:45 GMT are highly likely to cause USD moves. For example, the EUR/USD has moved from 6.8 to 18.3 pips.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
If the rate manages to break the resistance of the weekly S1 and the 55-hour SMA, the EUR/USD could surge to the 100-hour SMA at the 1.1800 level. Note that the 1.1800 level has been impacting the rate on its own, without the help of other technical indicators. In addition, take into account that a surge above the 200-hour SMA might reach the 200-hour SMA at 1.1815.On the other hand, a bounce off from the described resistance levels could look for support first in the 1.1770 mark and afterwards the weekly S2 simple pivot point and the 1.1750 level.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, EUR/USD has passed the support of the 55-day simple moving average at the 1.1800 level. The SMA kept the rate up since September 8.The passing of the SMA has left the rate with no additional support on the daily candle chart as low as the 1.1707 level, where a 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level is located at.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain long
On Friday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bullish, as 58% of open position volume was in long positions.
On Thursday, the situation changed as 60% of volume was in long positions.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 66% to buy the currency exchange rate.