GBP/USD tests Fibonacci retracement

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Thursday, the GBP/USD rate's bounce off from a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level was reversed by the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages.

By mid-day on Friday, the pair was once again back at the retracement level and was testing its support.

Economic Calendar



Data releases affecting the GBP/USD are set to start on Wednesday, as at 06:00 GMT the UK Consumer Price Index will be released. The rate could move more than 30 pips on the publication of the CPI.

Next UK data release is set to be out at 06:00 GMT on Thursday. The UK Retail Sales could cause a move of 20 pips.

On the same day, at 12:30 GMT, the US Unemployment Claims are scheduled to be released. Most likely, the event would reveal another major decline in US employment.

Also on Thursday, at 13:45 US Manufacturing PMI could cause a move, as in February and March it created 24.1 and 29.9 pip moves.

Last but not least, a notable reaction of above then pips could be created by the US Durable Goods orders.

GBP/USD short-term review

Yesterday, the GBP/USD exchange rate consolidated in the 1.2480 area. During Friday morning, the rate was testing the Fibo 50.00% at 1.2418.

If the given support level holds, it is likely that a reversal north could occur. Note that the currency pair would have to surpass the 55– and 100-hour SMAs in the 1.2500 area. If the given resistance holds, the rate could consolidate.

On the other hand, it is likely that the exchange rate could be pressured by the 200-hour SMA near 1.2460 and trade downwards in the short run. In this case the rate could gain support from the weekly and monthly PPs in the 1.2345/1.2372 area.

Hourly Chart


On the daily candle chart, the pair has bounced off the resistance of the 55 and 200-day simple moving averages at 1.2610 and 1.2654.

Daily chart


Traders return to being neutral

On Thursday, the sentiment on the Swiss Foreign Exchange had become 54% short, as traders had become bearish.

By the middle of Friday's GMT trading, the sentiment was 51% short, as traders had become neutral.

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