In general, the rate was finding support in the weekly pivot point near 1.1060, and it was expected to surge, as the rate is approached by the 55-hour SMA.
Economic Calendar Analysis
The week, as the first of the month, is bound to have monthly data releases.
Among them will be the US ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices. These events are capable of causing moves of up to 37.0 pips. They are set to be released at 15:00 GMT on Monday and Wednesday.
Note that on Wednesday, at 13:15 GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is scheduled to be published. However, with an exception in December, the event has not caused an increase of volatility on USD pairs.
Last but not least, on Friday, at 13:30 GMT the US will release their employment data. The release will consist of three data sets from the US – Average Earnings Change, Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Employment Change.
Data tables with the week's event historical reactions have been published. Click on the name of the publication to view it.
Read More: 03.02-07.02 Event Historical Reactions
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
On the one hand, some downside potential could prevail in the market. In this case the exchange rate would have to surpass the weekly PP at 1.1061. If the given support holds, the rate could reverse north to the monthly PP at 1.1104.If the given support level does not hold, it is likely that the currency pair could try to surpass the support cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the weekly S1 in the 1.1026/1.1045 range.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the rate's surge has passed the resistance of the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1072. In addition, note that on Monday the SMA failed to provide technical support.
Meanwhile, the 1.1100 level's resistance is being strengthened by the 55-day simple moving average.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Short sentiment increases
Since the middle of Wednesday's GMT hours, 53% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
On Monday, the sentiment changed, as 60% of open position volume was short.
Meanwhile, set up pending orders were neutral, as 52% of orders in the 100-pip range were to sell and 48% were to buy.