GBP/USD declines as forecast

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

As expected, the hourly simple moving averages have pushed the GBP/USD into reaching a new low level.

Namely, the rate has been pushed into trading between the 1.2620 and 1.2640 levels.

Latest Fundamental Event

The British Pound traded sideways against the US Dollar, following the UK Retail Sales data release on Friday at 08:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 5 pips or 0.04% right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2690 level against the Greenback.

Office for National Statistics released the UK Retail Sales data, which came out better-than-expected of 0.00% compared with forecast –0.1%.

According to the official release: "In the three months to April 2019, the quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales increased by 1.8% when compared with the previous three months, with strong growth in non-store retailing, which reached a record high of 9.4%."


No GBP/USD affecting data this week

On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT the US Preliminary GDP will be published. This event, which is considered and shown on the calendars as a top mover, has not caused notable moves.

Since November 2017 this event has caused on the EUR/USD moves from 6.8 to 11.9 pips during the five minutes after the release. Note that a move below ten pips on the EUR/USD during five minutes happen often without any data being published.

The week will end with the Canadian GDP publication at 12:30 GMT. This event has caused moves from 21 to 64 pips since December.

GBP/USD short-term review

The GBP/USD rate is trading between the 1.2620 and 1.2640 levels.

It is expected that the 55-hour simple moving average will cause another decline of the rate. Namely, it will provide the needed resistance to the pair to push through the technical support of the weekly S1, which was located at the 1.2609 level.

On the other hand, the rate might get squeezed in between the upper trend line of a descending channel pattern and the just described pivot point.

Hourly Chart


On the daily candle chart, the GBP/USD has broken the lower trend line of a descending channel pattern.

The rate has also confirmed the previous support level as resistance, by reaching the 1.2750 level and bouncing off it.

Meanwhile, the rate remains far below the daily simple moving averages, which is a clear signal that the GBP is oversold.

Daily chart

Traders remain long on GBP/USD

Since Wednesday's trading session, 73% of open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were bearish, as 58% of orders were set to sell.

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