EUR/USD continues to decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Tuesday, the decline of EUR/USD resumed.

The rate bounced off the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving average around the midnight hours of London's trading session and by the middle of the day the rate had reached below 1.1150.

The decline was already expected and described on Friday. In regards to the future, the pair has no technical support as low as 1.1120.

Latest Fundamental Event

The European Common currency traded sideways against the US Dollar, following the US Retail Sales data release on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 6 pips or 0.06% right after the release. The Euro continued trading at the 1.1185 level against the Greenback.

Census Bureau released the US Core Retail Sales data, which came out worse-than-expected of 0.1% compared with forecast 0.7%.

According to analysts, the US Retail Sales dropped unexpectedly due to the decreased demand for automobiles and building materials.




Notable events start on Wednesday



Late on Wednesday, the top event of the month will occur. The US FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released at 18:00 GMT. On the EUR/USD it has caused moves from 10.2 to 29.1 pips since October 2018.

On Thursday, data from the European Union will come. The French and German Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index will be published. The data will be released at 07:15 and 07:30 GMT.

The German data is the top to watch of the two, as it has caused moves from 6.5 to 38.8 pips on the EUR/USD.

The week will end with the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This event has been rather non-eventful in the past half a year, as it has caused moves of only five to 18 pips.

EUR/USD hourly chart's review

During Monday's trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair tried to breach the short-term ascending channel south. During today's morning, the pair declined to the 1.1150 mark.

Given that the exchange rate is pressured by the 55-hour moving average, it is likely, that bears could continue to prevail in the short run. Note, that the nearest support level is located at the 1.1124 level.

It is unlikely, that some upside potential could prevail in the market in the nearest future due to the resistance cluster formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, as well the weekly PP and the Fibo 38.20% in the 1.1180/1.1200 range.

Hourly Chart



On the daily candle chart, it could be seen that the resistance of the 55-day simple moving average has been left far above the rate.

Meanwhile, note that on the daily candle chart the lower trend line of a dominant pattern was located near the 1.1100 level.

Daily chart

Swiss traders short EUR/USD

On Tuesday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange of the total open EUR/USD position volume 69% was in short positions.

Namely, most traders were riding the decline down and profiting.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were bearish. Namely, 55% of all orders were set to sell.

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