GBP/USD might sharply surge

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

On Tuesday morning the GBP/USD was trading above a strong support cluster near 1.3200.

In general, the rate was expected to surge. However, the rate's previous attempts to surge were stopped by the technical resistance of the 200-hour SMA at 1.3220.

Latest Fundamental Event

The British Pound appreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Retail Sales data released on Thursday at 09:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate gained 11 pips or 0.09% during a minute, right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.3050 area against the US Dollar.

The Office for National Statistics released UK Retail Sales data that came out better than expected of 0.4%, compare to forecasted negative 0.4%.

Rhian Murphy, the ONS's head of retail sales, said: "Retail sales continued to bounce back in the three months to February with strong increases in fuel sales and online shopping."




UK data will be out on Friday

This is the last week of March and due to that reason it is expected to be quiet for macroeconomic fundamental data releases. However, there are a couple of notable events worth watching.

On Thursday, the US Final GDP data will be published at 12:30 GMT. The event might cause moves on various currency exchange rates from ten to twenty base points.

On Friday, there will be two releases. First will be the UK Current Account publication at 09:30 GMT. This event is expected to cause a small reaction because still most attention of fundamental traders is on the Brexit events not macroeconomic data.

That is because no historical data can be used for forecasting a currency strength in a situation where the base of the underlying economy is about to change so drastically.

Afterwards, on the same day, the top release of the week will occur. At 12:30 GMT the Canadian GDP will be published. The Canadian events are the only ones, which have constantly created exchange rate adjustments of more than 40 pips.

For more information watch the week's calendar review on YouTube by clicking the link below.

GBP/USD short term review

The GBP/USD is being squeezed in by a strong support cluster and a lone resistance level on the technical candle charts.

The rate is expected to break the resistance of the 200-hour SMA at 1.3220 and surge higher.

However, Dukascopy Analytics are almost certain that another Brexit announcement will once more crash the technical charts. Due to that reason caution is advised.

Hourly Chart


On the daily chart the rate is located just above the weekly PP at 1.3180, and it has not technical resistance as high as 1.3350.

Meanwhile, due to the fact that all of the daily candle simple moving averages are below the rate, it is possible that the pair will trade sideways during the near future or even decline.

Daily chart

Traders remain short on GBP/USD

On Tuesday, 61% of trader open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was shorting the GBP/USD.

Meanwhile, the pending orders are mostly bearish. In the 100-pip range near the rate 64% of pending orders were set to sell.

These orders and positions are shorting the Brexit falls.

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