The EUR/USD has reached the resistance levels at the 1.1365 mark. However, before doing that the currency exchange rate declined down below the 1.1340 level.
Due to that reason it is assumed that most likely no short term traders managed to profit from the recent fluctuations.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US CPI and Core CPI release on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 13 pips or 0.12% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency kept going upwards after the data release to continue trading at the 1.1275 area against the US Dollar.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released US CPI data that came out in line with expectations of 0.2%. Note, that the US Core CPI was released at the same time with the US CPI.
According to analysts at TD Securities: "Price pressures will benefit higher food and gasoline prices and another solid 0.2% increase in core CPI, leaving the latter unchanged at 2.2% y/y. There is a risk for a slight deceleration in the shelter, but we expect strength elsewhere, including tariff-related categories, medical care and airfares."
Busy week for fundamental events
This week will be busy for fundamental announcement traders. Both the central banks and various statistics offices are set to make various announcements.On Wednesday, at 18:00 GMT the Federal Reserve will publish their FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and the Federal Funds Rate. Moreover, the event will be followed by the FOMC Press Conference.
This event is above all else during this week, as the FOMC sets the value of the US Dollar. In general, the rest of the world's central banks just adapt to the Federal Reserve.
On Thursday, all attention will be on the UK events. At 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales will be published. Afterwards, at 12:00 GMT the Bank of England will announce their official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Summary. The BoE in general is expected to react to the recent Brexit developments and the Federal Reserve.
On Friday, there will be two notable data releases. At 08:30 GMT the German Markit PMIs will be released. They are expected to cause a significant impact on the EUR pairs.
The last event of the week will be the Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales release at 12:30 GMT.
For more information watch this week's economic calendar analysis stream.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
During Tuesday's trading session, the currency exchange rate surged to 1.1360 level as it was predicted! On Wednesday morning, the rate was located between the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages at the 1.3437 mark.It is expected that the 100-hour simple moving average will support the rate at the 1.1330 mark to push it to the 1.1355 mark.
In addition, today's US Federal Funds Rate, FOMC Statement release at 18:00 GMT, might push the rate to break the resistance level of the monthly pivot point at 1.1364 to trade at the 1.1370 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the rate is trading in a long term descending channel pattern.
The rate is about to touch the upper trend line of the pattern and begin a decline, if the resistance holds.
The trend line is not standing as a single technical resistance levels. It is strengthened by the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages and the monthly pivot point.
Daily chart
Since the middle of Tuesday's trading the total open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was 70% short.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were short. Namely, 53% of pending orders were set to sell.
In general, most traders remain short on the EUR/USD, expecting a decline that might occur after the recent larger scale surge.