GBP/USD continues to decline

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The GBP/USD broke a support line on Thursday, signaling that this highly fundamental event affected currency exchange rate is set to decline.

Namely, it should first touch the pivot point at 1.3130. If that PP gets passed, the next target will be the weekly S1 at 1.3060.

Latest Fundamental Event

The Federal Reserve released last Wednesday the US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

"Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve's asset holdings later this year. Such an announcement would provide more certainty about the process for completing the normalization of the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet," the document said.

US data on Friday will impact the GBP/USD

On Thursday, all attention will be on the European Central Bank. The bank will publish its Main Refinancing Rate at 12:45 GMT and host a press conference at 13:30 GMT.

The rate announcement has become insignificant, as the ECB keeps their rate at 0.00%. Instead during the press conference the heads of the bank will reveal information about the ECB's asset buying program.

On Friday, Canada and the US will publish their monthly employment data sets. It has five important data sets impacting the USD/CAD. It is the most complicated one to work with, as each data set impacts the rate differently.

For more information watch the weekly calendar analysis stream on our YouTube channel.

GBP/USD short term review

During Wednesday's trading session, the rate traded sideways between the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages to end the trading session at 1.3150. On Thursday morning, the currency exchange rate was located above the 50.00% Fibo at the 1.3165 mark.

In regards to the near term future, most likely, the 100-hour simple moving average will resist the rate to break the medium pattern line at 1.3150 mark to depreciate towards the monthly pivot point at 1.3129.

On the other hand, the 55-hour simple moving average could support the rate to push the rate to stay at the 1.3150 level during the day.

Hourly Chart


On the daily chart the recent moves have been consistent with a dominant ascending pattern. The rate is retracing downwards in the borders of it.

If the descent continues at the current angle, the rate might reach down to the 1.3000 mark.

Daily chart

Traders remain short

Traders continue to mostly short the GBP/USD. On the Swiss Foreign Exchange of the total open position volume 63% was short on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the pending orders were set to sell. 55% of pending commands in the 100-pip range were set to buy the GBP/USD.

In general, traders continue to ride the wave downwards.

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