On Thursday morning, after finding support in the lower trend line of the ascending pattern, the EUR/USD began another attempt at surging above 1.1400.
That level needs to be watched closely to understand the medium term future of the EUR/USD.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US Durable Goods Orders data release last Thursday at 13:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 15 pips or 0.13% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency continued trading at the 1.1350 area against the US Dollar.
The Census Bureau released US Core Durable Goods Orders data that came out lower than expected of 0.1 compared with forecasted 0.3%. Note, the US Durable Goods Orders data came out together with the US Core Durable Goods Orders.
Quiet last week of the month
As it is accustomed, the last week of the month is set to be quiet for fundamental macroeconomic data releases.
On Thursday the US Advance GDP will be released at 13:30 GMT. This event can cause moves of around 20 base points.
On Friday, the Canadian GDP data will be out at 13:30 GMT. It is most likely set to be the event which will cause the biggest move during this week.
For more information watch the weekly calendar analysis stream on our YouTube channel.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
The EUR/USD did not manage to pass the resistance levels at the 1.1400 mark. Instead the rate retreated down to the lower trend line of the ascending channel pattern.On Thursday morning the rate had bounced off the support of the trend line and had found additional support in the weekly R1 at 1.1380. Due to that reason it was assumed that the rate will make another attempt to pass the 1.1400 level.
On the other hand the rate might trade sideways and that way pass the support of the ascending channel. That way the rate would face the various support on the hourly chart one by one and decline below them.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart additional information can be seen. Namely, the 55 and 100-day simple moving averages were located near the 1.1400 level. They caused the recent retracement downwards.
Daily chart
Short position volume has slightly decreased. Previously, 72% of volume was short.
On Thursday, of the total open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange 70% of volume was shorting the EUR/USD.
In the meantime, some additional selling was expected. By the middle of day's trading 59% of trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range were set to sell.