GBP/USD tests resistance at 1.2900

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The GBP was not influenced by the political events of Wednesday, as it has continued to trade sideways below the 1.2900 level.

Meanwhile, for technical trades it should be more notable that the GBP/USD rate was making an attempt to pass a strong resistance cluster from 1.2900 to the 1.2910 level.

Latest Fundamental Event

The British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK CPI data released on Wednesday at 09:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 6 pips or 0.05% during a minute, right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2870 area against the US Dollar.

The Office for National Statistics released UK CPI data that came in line with expectations of 2.1%.

The head of inflation at the ONS, Mike Hardie, said: "Inflation eased mainly due to a big fall in petrol, with oil prices tumbling in recent months."

"Air fares also helped push down the rate, with seasonal prices rising less than they did last year. These were partially offset by small rises in hotel prices and mobile phone charges."

"House price growth was little changed in the year to November, with buoyant growth across much of the UK held back by London and the South East."

Read More: Macro Releases

Empty Thursday

Besides a couple of speeches by central bankers, which are not expected to reveal anything, there are no notable events scheduled for Thursday.

On Friday, two data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.

At 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales will be published. Around 10-40 base point move can be expected during the event.

The biggest event of the will occur at 13:30. The Canadian CPI will be published. On the USD/CAD there are 30 pip moves even when it hits the forecast. When the data is different there have been 40-85 pip moves.
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GBP/USD short term review

During the previous trading session, the rate was supported by the 55-hour SMA to trade sideways at the 1.2840 level. On Thursday morning, the rate was located at 1.2872.

It is expected that the British Pound will be supported by the SMAs and the 62.30% Fibo at 1.2864 to push the rate towards the medium pattern line at 1.2908. Most likely, the medium pattern line will retrace the British Pound to the 1.2800 level.

On the other hand, the support levels could push the rate to break the resistance of the medium pattern line towards the weekly R2 at 1.2964.

Hourly Chart


The resistance cluster, which the rate faced previously, stood strong since Tuesday. Namely, two pivot points and the 100-day SMA were located close above the 1.2900 level.

The rate could be pushed through the cluster by the 55-day simple moving average. Although, the SMA was ignored by the markets during the Brexit volatility increase.

Daily chart

Sentiment is neutral on GBP/USD

Previously the open GBP/USD proportions were almost balanced on the Swiss Foreign Exchange. On Thursday, the sentiment had become perfectly balanced, as 50% of positions were long and 50% were short.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-base point range were set to buy the pair in 52% of cases. Previously, 60% of orders were set to sell.

Traders remained neutral on the pair and had removed their sell orders, which would have taken advantage of a drop of the GBP/USD.

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