- The Swiss market is 58% bullish on the pair
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 57% of cases
- UK Data will be published only on Friday
The 1.2800 mark has been reached, as it was forecast previously. However, the rate has not reached the upper trend line of the dominant pattern. As the rate finds support in the 55-hour SMA and lower trend line of an ascending pattern.
Latest Fundamental Event
The British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK BOE Official Bank Rate data release on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 13 pips or 0.10% during a minute, right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2680 area.
The Bank of England released Bank of England Official Bank Rate data that came out in line with expectations of 0.75%. The Votes and Monetary Policy Summary together with the MPC Official Bank Rate data release came out today at 12:00 GMT, in which all votes were in favor to hold the rate unchanged.
The Bank of England says "All roads ultimately lead back to Brexit and until there's a semblance of certainty, the outlook will remain difficult for the UK. We expect interest rates will remain unchanged, with May offering the best hope of a hike. However, this is largely dependent on Britain leaving the EU with a deal in place."
No UK data until Friday
There are notable macroeconomic and monetary events taking place this week that are scheduled to be covered by Dukascopy and are expected to cause fluctuations in the Forex market.First up on Tuesday the Canadian Trade Balance will be published at 13:30 GMT. The event is expected to cause a bounce from 10 to 35 base points.
Afterwards, Wednesday will be the busiest day of the week for macroeconomics. At 15:00 GMT the Bank of Canada will publish its Overnight Rate. The bank is set to hike their interest rate from 1.75% to 2.00%. Due to that reason the USD/CAD is expected to fall at least 50 base points.
Afterwards, take into account that the big once per week move on oil due to US Crude Oil Inventories is scheduled to occur at 15:30 GMT. During the past month oil prices bounced from 40 to 80 cents per barrel on the announcement.
The busy day will end with the FOMC Meeting Minutes publication at 19:00 GMT. During the event the market usually does not fluctuate. However, surprises are possible.
Last but not least will be the releases on Friday. UK GDP and Manufacturing Production are expected to cause a 20 pip move at 09:30 GMT. At 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI data sets might cause a 10-30 pip move.
GBP/USD short term review
During Tuesday morning hours, the British Pound was trading near the upper boundary of the dominant pattern line at the 1.2762 mark.The GBP/USD waits for a break-out which might occur during the trading session. In addition, the British Pond could break the upper boundary of the descending dominant pattern line at the 1.2800 mark to trade near the 82.20% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the other hand, the rate might get retraced by the dominant pattern line at the 1.2800 mark to push the rate to trade at the 1.2700 level during the day.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the GBP/USD is once more testing the combined resistance of the upper trend line of a dominant descending pattern and the 55-hour simple moving average.
Meanwhile, in accordance with that pattern the currency rate is set to decline sharply during the first couple of months of 2019.
In addition, note that during the last drop downwards, when the rate touched the 1.2450 mark, it reached a new low level. That signals further weakness of the GBP.
Daily chart
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-base point range had changed. They were no longer set to sell, as 56% of orders were to buy.
The sentiment contradicts the charts. However, the trades on the GBP/USD are mostly fundamental that express the views of the traders in regards to the Brexit. In general, it can be seen that traders expect a Brexit deal, which will cause a surge of the GBP/USD.