- The Swiss market is 57% bullish on the pair
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 65% of cases
- US and Canadian Employment on Friday
The first daily review of the GBP/USD of the year has already managed to forecast the decline of the rate. Namely, the rate has decline down to the 1.2630 level. In addition, it is expected that the rate will continue to decline.
Latest Fundamental Event
The British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK BOE Official Bank Rate data release on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 13 pips or 0.10% during a minute, right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.2680 area.
The Bank of England released Bank of England Official Bank Rate data that came out in line with expectations of 0.75%. The Votes and Monetary Policy Summary together with the MPC Official Bank Rate data release came out today at 12:00 GMT, in which all votes were in favor to hold the rate unchanged.
The Bank of England says "All roads ultimately lead back to Brexit and until there's a semblance of certainty, the outlook will remain difficult for the UK. We expect interest rates will remain unchanged, with May offering the best hope of a hike. However, this is largely dependent on Britain leaving the EU with a deal in place."
US and Canadian Employment data
The first week of the year will have a notable data release occurring. Namely, on Friday at 13:30 GMT the Canadian and US statisticians are expected to publish their employment data.In both countries the Average Earnings, Change in Employment in real numbers and the official Unemployment Rate will be published. This data release has caused an increase of volatility on the USD/CAD from 30 to 70 base points.
The data release will be covered during a live stream on the Dukascopy Webinars YouTube channel. The event will start at 13:20 GMT.
GBP/USD short term review
On Wednesday morning, the GBP/USD was piercing one support level after another near the 1.2690 mark. Namely, various SMAs and pivot points were being passed.If the rate passes clearly below the 1.2680 level, it will be expected to fall as low as the 1.2630 level, as between these two technical levels there is no other support level.
However, with the start of a new year expect that the Brexit announcement will resume and start beating the GBP up and down with high volatility.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart the GBP/USD has bounced off the upper trend line of a dominant descending channel pattern.
In accordance with that pattern the currency rate is set to decline sharply during the first couple of months of 2019.
In addition, take into account that as the Brexit events continue, the rate might get a fundamental push downwards.
Daily chart
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-base point range were mostly set to buy. Namely, 63% of orders were to buy.
Most likely the traders were profiting from the decline while simultaneously having set up take profit and stop loss buy orders.