- The Swiss market is 55% bullish on the pair
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 51% set to sell
- UK data each morning until Friday
The GBP/USD has plummeted downwards faster than it was previously expected. By the middle of Monday's trading session the rate had reached below the 1.2850 mark.
Latest Fundamental Event
The British Pound appreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK GDP data release on Friday at 09:30 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate gained 9 pips or 0.07% during a minute, right after the release. The British Pound continued trading at the 1.3005 area against the US Dollar.
The Office for National Statistics released UK GDP data that came out lower than expected of 0.0%, compare to forecasted 0.1%. In addition, the Manufacturing Production together with the Preliminary GDP data release came out on Friday at 09:30 GMT.
Rob Kent-Smith, head of national accounts at the ONS, said: "The economy saw a strong summer, although longer-term economic growth remained subdued. There are some signs of weakness in September, with slowing retail sales and a fallback in domestic car purchases."
Relevant data incoming almost each morning
This week macroeconomic data release traders will have a lot to do. Starting from Tuesday, almost each day a notable data release is expected to cause sudden fluctuations of at least ten base points.On Tuesday morning the UK Average Earnings Index and other employment data sets will be published. The data release will occur at 09:30 GMT.
On Wednesday, there are two data releases that are set to be covered. Namely, at 09:30 GMT the UK CPI will be published. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI data sets will be released.
Thursday will be the last day with notable data releases. At 09:30 GMT the British will publish their retail sales data. Afterwards, at 13:30 GMT the US statisticians will publish their retail sector data.
For more in-depth analysis of this week's fundamental economic events watch the weekly Monday's Poking the Economic Calendar webinar, which is live each Monday at 12:00 both on Dukascopy telefision and YouTube.
GBP/USD short term review
In regards to the near-term future, the British Pound will depreciate towards the 62.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.2867 mark. Most likely, the rate will bounce off the support level of the 62.20% Fibo to trade sideways at the 1.2880 level during the trading session on Monday.On the other side, the rate could pass through the support of the 62.20% Fibo to depreciate even more to be traded near the weekly S2 at the 1.2820 level.
Hourly Chart
From the daily chart's perspective, the decline of the GBP/USD is considered normal. A fast decline should have occurred, as the simple moving averages, which kept the rate up, were passed on Friday.
In regards to the future, the rate should reveal a new medium scale pattern, which should guide the currency exchange rate lower in the borders of the larger pattern.
Daily chart
Meanwhile, the pending orders in the 100-pip range are perfectly balanced. 50% are set to buy and 50% are set to sell. Although, note that these round numbers can be caused by the lack of pending orders at all.
In general, traders are slightly long on the pair, but they do not intend to sell it or buy in the near future. This indicates that some expect a retracement upwards after the fall.