- The Swiss traders are 59% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 59% to buy
- US Employment will impact the rate on Friday
USD/JPY has retraced back down to the 112.70 mark, where a weekly pivot point and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level stopped the decline.
Latest Fundamental Event
Last Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released US Advance GDP data that came out better than expected of 3.5%, compare to forecasted 3.3%.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis noted: "The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter reflected a downturn in exports and a deceleration in non-residential fixed investment. Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment".
USD/JPY impacting data only on Friday
There will be no data releases impacting the USD/JPY until Friday. On that day the US Employment data sets will be published.
Namely, at 12:30 GMT the US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate will be released. The data will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The event can be watched on the bank's webinar platform and on YouTube.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the near-term future, the US Dollar will be supported by the 61.80 % Fibo and the monthly R1 at 112.73 to break the resistances of the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP at the 112.96. Most likely, the rate will surge to the monthly R2.On the other side, the US Dollar could depreciate to pass through the 100-hour and the 200-hour SMAs during the trading session on Thursday.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart's dominant ascending pattern has been adjusted. Although, judging by the previous usefulness of it, it is better not to use its trend lines for guidance.
Daily chart
During the recent surge traders have opened short positions and closed long positions by taking profit and starting to short the pair. Namely, 59% of trader set up orders were short since Wednesday.
Meanwhile, traders have set up various pending trade orders. The orders were almost perfectly balanced, as 51% of orders were to buy.
In general, the retail sector is shorting the USD/JPY without preparing to buy or sell it in the near future.