- The Swiss traders are 58% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 52% to sell
- US GDP incoming at 12:30 GMT
The USD/JPY has reached the 112.40 mark in the aftermath of its bounce off from the support line of a dominant channel up pattern. Although, the path higher of the currency pair was still full of technical resistance levels.
Although there haven't been data releases impacting the USD/JPY, on Friday the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales caused a massive reaction in the financial markets.
The US Dollar appreciated against the Canadian Dollar, following the CAD CPI and Core Retail Sales data release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The USD/CAD exchange currency rate gained 69 pips or 0.53% during a minute, right after the release. The US Dollar continued trading at the 1.3087 area.
The Statistics Canada released CAD CPI data that came out lower-than-expected of negative 0.4% compared with forecasted negative 0.1%. Moreover, CAD Retail Sales data came out together with the CAD CPI data release with the data lower-than-expected of negative 0.4% compared with the forecasted 0.1%.
Two US data releases this week
There are a couple of American data releases this week that impact the USD/JPY this week.First was be the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data sets on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The data release disappointed, as the markets did not react to it.
Second and more important, will be the US Advance GDP data release on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
The data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. Join the webinars at 12:20 GMT to see the live analysis of the sentiment, technical charts and historical data.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the US Dollar will trade downside towards the weekly S1 at 111.87 due to a break-out of the 55-hour and the 200-hour hour simple moving averages.On the other hand, the 50.00% Fibo could support the rate during the break-out to push the rate to surge towards the 112.40 level.
Hourly Chart
The lower trend line of the dominant pattern was pierced for a short moment by the currency exchange rate. Although, the decline was stopped by the combined support of the weekly S1 and the 55-day simple moving average.
This signals that the trend line cannot hold the rate down from a decline on its own. It needs the 55-day SMA to catch up to it to pressure the pair higher.
Daily chart
On Thursday, 58% of traders were shorting the pair. The day before, SWFX traders were 55% short in regards to the USD/JPY. Previously, on Tuesday, Dukascopy traders were neutral.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders were slightly bearish, as 53% of all trader set up pending orders were set to sell.
It seems that trades are expecting a retracement downwards on the USD/JPY charts in the aftermath of the recent surge.