- SWFX market sentiment is 64% bullish today
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 63% of cases
- Wait for the ECB rate on Thursday
The EUR/USD has retreated to once more confirm the lower trend line of a dominant pattern. In general, the rate is expected to surge after the encounter with the pattern's line.
There haven't been any data releases impacting the EUR/USD for more than a week. However, the previous one that caught the attention of traders was the Crude Oil Price release last Wednesday.
Oil price decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 68 pips, or 0.96% right after the data release. In the next minutes the rate was trading at the 70.10 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 6.5M, compare to forecasted 1.6M
"A tick higher in refining activity and a drop in production due to hurricane activity in the Gulf was not enough to halt a fourth consecutive climb in (inventories)- and a solid one at that," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData in Louisville, Kentucky.
Almost empty week
In regards to macroeconomic events this week, which might impact the EUR/USD, there are only two days to watch. Namely, Thursday and Friday.
On Thursday, the ECB Main Refinancing Rate will be published at 11:45 GMT. Duakscopy Analytics intend to host a live cover webinar of the rate announcement.
Afterwards, at 12:30 GMT the ECB Press Conference will impact the strength of the Euro. Meanwhile, at the same time as the conference starts the US Duarble Goods Orders will be released. This event will be also covered.
The second day will be Friday. On that day the US Advance GDP will be published at 12:30 GMT. The data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform.
In addition, note that on the same day at 14:00 GMT the ECB President Mario Draghi is set to give a speech. Although, he is set to speak at a non-essential event, and the speech most likely will not impact the Euro's strength.
EUR/USD short term review
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the rate will trade downside towards the monthly S2 at 1.1359 due to the resistance of the medium pattern line at 1.1445.On the other side, the weekly S1 at 1.1425 might support the rate to push the rate to trade upwards to stay at the 1.1440 level during the trading session.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart provides no additional information, as the previously used for guidance patterns have been broken. Most likely a new pattern will be spotted in the near future.
Daily chart
On Wednesday, traders continued to be long on the EUR/USD. Namely, 64% of traders were long.
Meanwhile, traders no longer were preparing to sell the pair, as 52% of all trader set up orders were set to sell the pair.
This indicates that the traders are preparing to take advantage of a rebound upwards. However, the retail sector will not provide a push upwards or downwards, as their pending orders are almost neutral.