- The Swiss market is 53% bearish
- 56% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- No more UK releases during the week
On Thursday morning the release of the UK Retail Sales disapointed. Namely, the traders in the Dukascopy live webinar room saw only a jump of 18 base points instead of the expected 40 base points. Meanwhile, read up lower on how the release affected the technical charts.
British Pound depreciated against the US Dollar, following the UK Official Bank Rate on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The GBP/USD exchange currency rate lost 23 pips or 0.18% during a minute, right after the release. The market did not react on the data release at all at this time.
The Bank of England released Bank of England Official Bank Rate data that came out in line with expectations of 0.75%. The Votes and Monetary Policy Summary together with the MPC Official Bank Rate data release came out today at 11:00 GMT, in which all votes were in favor to hold the rate unchanged.
The Central Bank said: "Since the Committee's previous meeting, there have been indications, most prominently in financial markets, of greater uncertainty about future developments in the (EU) withdrawal process."
No more UK releases
On Thursday, all attention of macroeconomic data release traders was set on the UK Retail Sales data at 08:30 GMT. However, it disappointed with only a jump of 18 base points.
Meanwhile, note that the week's macroeconomic releases will end on Friday. On that day the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data sets will influence the strength of the Canadian Dollar at 12:30 GMT.
GBP/USD short term review
The currency exchange pair broke the resistances of the 50.00% Fibo, the weekly R1 at 1.3178 and the monthly R1 at 1.3185 due to UK retail sales data release, which was released at 08:30 GMT on Thursday.In the near-term future, most likely, the rate will bounce off the upper boundary of the medium ascending channel to stay trading into the pattern during the day.
On the other hand, the rate may break the medium pattern line due to the support of the monthly R1 at the 1.3185 mark to trade near the 1.3240 level.
Hourly Chart
The recently adjusted ascending pattern of the daily chart was not broken during the UK CPI announcement. The upper trend line of the pattern actually managed to hold the currency exchange rate from surging in the aftermath of the jump upwards.
However, that does not necessarily mean that a decline is about to occur. Most likely the pivot points that were previously providing resistance might support the pair from the downside. In that case the rate will surge up to the 1.3285 level in the borders of the ascending channel.
Daily chart
After each data release that occurred during this week and affected the Pound, Swiss trader short the GBP/USD even more and more. On Thursday, already 54% of all open positions were short.
In the meantime, trader set up orders, which indicate where the rate most likely will go next, are set to buy the pair in 53% of all cases. The orders have remained almost neutral during the recent past.
It seems that most traders are waiting for a reversal after the more than 500 pip surge that has occurred on the GBP/USD charts throughout September.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility