- SWFX market sentiment is 57% bullish today
- 52% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Draghi's speech on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT
EUR/USD has reached 1.1720 mark, as expected. Although, after touching the resistance levels at the mentioned level, the currency exchange rate retreated down to support levels near the 1.1680 level. Most likely the rate will again reach for the 1.1720 level.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the United States Retail Sales data release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 12 pips or 0.10% during a minute, right after the release.
The Census Bureau released US Retail Sales data that came out lower-than-expected of 0.1%, compared to forecasted 0.4%. Economists and traders closely monitor the US Retail sales because they provide an early read on consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of the US economic activity.
The August's US Retail Sales 0.1% growth was the weakest growth in the past 6 months due to automobile and clothing sale decrease. That compares to the 0.5% gain from July and missed economists' forecast for 0.4 %, but remained up 6.6 %year-over-year.
Another Draghi's speech on Wednesday
The third week of the month, as it is usual, will be a quiet one for macroeconomics. Namely, there will be six notable events during the whole week that could be watched by traders.
First note the speeches of Mario Draghi. The first one will be the speech on Tuesday at 07:15 GMT. Another speech will occur on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT.
Second, on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT the UK CPI will be published. This data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. Join the platform ten minutes before the event to watch the coverage. On the same day at 14:30 GMT the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data will be published. As usual, it is expected to cause fluctuations in the 50 base point range on the oil price charts.
On Thursday, all attention of macroeconomic data release traders will be set on the UK Retail Sales data at 08:30 GMT.
The week's macroeconomic releases will end on Friday. On that day the Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data sets will influence the strength of the Canadian Dollar at 12:30 GMT.
EUR/USD short term review
In regards to the near future, most likely, the rate should move downwards due to the resistance of the weekly R1 and the 38.20% Fibo. It is expected that the rate should trade at the 1.1680 level during the day.However, the rate might ignore the resistance of the weekly R1 at the 1.1722 mark and the 38.20% Fibo to pass through them to trade at 1.1760 level on Tuesday.
Hourly Chart
The large scale ascending pattern, which was discovered on Tuesday, has pushed the currency rate higher. It can be expected that this pattern will continue to guide the currency exchange rate up to the 1.1900 mark.
Daily chart
Swiss trader short term oriented market sentiment remains long. Namely, 57% of all traders have open long positions.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 55% are set to sell the EUR/USD.
This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down, as it dumps its long positions by taking profits or shorting the EUR/USD.
In general, it can be noticed that the sentiment has not changed much throughout the weekend. Most notable is the fact that Dukascopy traders most likely are profiting from the recent surge. Meanwhile, they have set up sell orders to close their long positions and short the rate, if it ends its surge.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility