- The Swiss market sentiment is 55% bearish
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 61% of cases
- Minor US data incoming
The USD/JPY is squeezed in between SMAs. However, by looking at the daily chart there are more important developments to note. Scroll down to read more.
The last notable released data set, which influenced the USD/JPY currency exchange rate, was published last week.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the US Prelim GDP data that came better-than-expected. Namely, the GDP grew by 4.2%, compared with the forecast 4.0%. The data release showed that the US currency should be more demanded than previously though.
An analyst at Dukascopy Bank SA comments: "There are three types of GDP releases, released a month apart from each other. The most significant version is called the Advance GDP, which is the most significant against other GDP releases. Prelim GDP is an insignificant release, which doesn't affect the market a lot. This time was not an exception."
Minor US data until Friday
Most major financial instruments will start suddenly bouncing around on US macroeconomic data releases on Thursday, as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released at 12:15 GMT and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be out at 14:00 GMT.
Moreover, it will continue into Friday. On Friday, at 12:30 GMT three US employment data sets will be published.
USD/JPY short term analysis
The USD/JPY gained additional ground previously by breaking the upper trend line of a dominant pattern. However, on Thursday it was back down below 111.40 level. The rate was located between the resistance of the 55-hour SMA at 111.40 and the 100 and 200-hour SMA's during at 111.20.The rate had begun to and was set to continue moving up. The reasons was the moving north of both the resistance and support simple moving averages.
The surge would reach and once more test the dominant trend line, which had been pierced previously. Watch the chart for a breaking or holding of the trend line.
Hourly Chart
The currency exchange rate was located at a very important spot on Thursday. The descending long term pattern has held its ground for now, and the rate was retreating on Thursday downwards.
If the trend line of the channel down manages to force the rate through the support levels just above the 111.00 level, the pair will begin a descent, which will last into October.
On the other hand, if the resistance of the pattern gets properly broken, the technical analysis aspect will be based only on simple moving averages and weekly and monthly pivot points.
Daily chart
During the morning hours of the day, 54% of trader open positions were long. Previously, they were 52% long and before that 52% short. It clearly shows that there was buying done by Dukascopy traders during the last couple of days.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders, which could provide momentum to one or the other side, were set to buy in 52% of all cases. The orders were perfectly balanced on Wednesday.
The brokerages with more long term clients are no longer bullish. Saxo Bank traders are 55% short. Meanwhile, OANDA traders have 52% of open positions at the brokerage short.
It can be observed that the retail sector chased the surge of the USD/JPY, as the number of long positions has increased. Meanwhile, longer term sentiments became bearish, as either profits were taken from long or short positions opened in expectations of the decline described in the analysis of the daily chart.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility