- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bullish today
- 54% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- No notable Fundamental Events until Wednesday
On Tuesday the EUR/USD pair booked a new high level. Namely, the bullion managed to reach and make three attempts at breaking the 1.1690 mark. At that level a monthly pivot point level was located at.
The US Dollar weakened against the European Single Currency, following the US Core Durable Goods Orders data release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair gained only 6 pips or 0.05% at the time of the release. The data release did not made significant changes to the whole image of the currency pair.
The Census Bureau released US Core Durable Goods Orders data that came lower-than-expected of 0.2%, compared with the forecasted 0.5% . The data release showed traders that the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods was lower than expected this time.
Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve said: " I see the current path of gradually raising interest rates as the [Federal Open Market Committee's] approach to taking seriously both of these risks, while inflation has recently moved up near 2%, we have seen no clear sign of acceleration above 2%, and there does not seem to be an elevated risk of overheating."
No data until Wednesday
It is the last week of the month, due to that reason there are almost no notable events scheduled for the most part of the week, which might cause large fluctuations in the currency markets.
On Wednesday, the US Preliminary GDP will be released at 12:30 GMT. The data, in theory, should provide a large reaction in the financial markets. Live event cover on the Dukascopy Webinar platform by Dukascopy Analytics will start at 12:20 GMT.
On the same day the weekly US Crude Oil Inventories data release will be published at 14:30 GMT, which has given bounces of at least 0.5 USD or 50 base points throughout the summer. Although, note that two times the data release disappointed macroeconomic release traders.
The week's last notable event will be the publication of the monthly Canadian GDP at 12:30 on Thursday. This data set is set to give the largest reaction from all of the releases, as CAD GDP has been constantly giving a reaction of at least 40 base points each month on the USD/CAD.
EUR/USD continues to surge
The previously observable dominant descending patterns on the EUR/USD chart were removed on Tuesday, as the surging momentum of the rate has managed to break both of them.Meanwhile, the rate continues to surge in the borders of a medium scale ascending pattern, which, together with the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages, has provided the rate with the needed support. Namely, the rate has surged up to the resistance of a monthly pivot point near the 1.1690 level.
On Tuesday, the rate was consolidating its previous gains and waiting for the 55 and 100-hour SMAs to catch up before continuing the surge.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart shows that the momentum provided by the speech of Jerome Powell has lasted into Tuesday. Namely, the upper trend line of another long term pattern was broken recently.
When the markets fully take in the fundamental developments, a full review of the technical charts of the EUR/USD will be conducted by Dukascopy Analytics.
Daily chart
On Tuesday, Swiss Foreign Exchange Traders, which are mostly short term oriented, were still long on the EUR/USD. Namely, 61% of all open positions were long. Although, previously 64% of positions were long.
Meanwhile, all of the traders on SWFX have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. Of all the take profits, stop losses, sell and buy orders 55% are set to sell the EUR/USD. This means that, if the rate increases volatility, the retail sector will push the rate down.
Other, more long term oriented FX brokerages also publish their sentiment data. They can help retail traders with understanding the market expectations for the next couple of months. For example, OANDA brokerage traders are 55% short on the pair, and Saxo Bank traders are also 55% short.
All of the sentiment information provides us with the understanding of the collective market thought. Namely, the EUR/USD has still open short term long positions, which have close by stop losses and take profits that can be observed on the SWFX sentiment. Meanwhile, the longer term traders have already moved to the bear side and shorted the pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility