- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bullish today
- 54% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Upcoming fundamental events: US (Core) Durable Goods Orders m/m, Fed Chair Powell to speak, Jackson Hole Symposium
The Euro is stranded between the 55- and 100-hour SMAs in this session.
The Greenback weakened against the European Single Currency, following the United States Building Permits release on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD currency pair 1 minute candle gained only 4 pips, or 0.03% at the release time, but combined with the buying action occurring before the data was released, there was a surge of 17 pips or 0.15% in total.
The Census Bureau released US Building Permits data that came in line with expectation of 1.30 Million. There was no change between actual and forecasted data this time.
Scott Volling, principal at PricewaterhouseCoopers said: "June appeared to be an anomaly, but July results indicate a trend. With permits still fairly solid, we will need to see if the trend continues into the late summer/early fall or if recent permits translate to stronger starts in the coming months ".
Powell speaks today
Friday's trading session will start with the US monthly Durable Goods Orders at 1230GMT. The market expectation about the core reading is a 0.5% advance during the month of July. The event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. The cover will start at 12:20 GMT.
Another important fundamental event that could shake the given currency pair is a speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell who is to address ‘Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy' at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD remains stable
Given lack of fundamentals, the EUR/USD exchange rate showed no changes to its price level on Thursday. The pair was restricted by the monthly S1 from above, while support was set by the 100-hour SMA and the weekly S2 at 1.1582 and 1.1540, respectively. This slight movement down sent the pair testing the junior channel early this morning.Technical indicators on the 4H chart demonstrate that the pair is more likely to edge lower today, but traders still need to wait for a confirmation—a southern breakout from the 1.1540 territory—to see a decline. Today's downside target is the 200-hour SMA and the monthly S2 circa 1.1470.
In case this expected breakout south does not occur, the rate should target the upper junior channel line and the monthly PP at the 1.1650 level.
Hourly Chart
The currency exchange rate still remains in the boundaries of a dominant descending channel pattern. Watch its upper trend line, which might provide the needed resistance to stop the surge and force the Euro down against the US Dollar.
Daily chart
On Friday, the SWFX market sentiment remained 63% bullish. Previously, some retail traders closed their long positions and took profit at the 1.16 mark.
Meanwhile, 61% of Swiss trader set up orders are set to sell. These orders are considered normal, as all of the long positions have a take profit and stop loss orders. Moreover, some might be looking for a retracement downwards that would occur after the surge.
The bearishness of other market places slightly eased on Friday. Namely, Oanda traders were 56% short (-2%) and SAXO bank's sentiment was 54% short (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility