- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish (-1%)
- 53% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: US Existing Home Sales
The Euro has remained stable against the Greenback this morning, as the pair has approached a strong resistance cluster.
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US Retail Sales data release. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 10 pips, or 0.12%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.7088 area.
The Census Bureau released monthly Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 0.5%, compare to forecasted 0.4%.
Pablo Piovano, an Economist from FXStreet, said: "In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June's 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed's J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday."
Quiet day
No important data releases are scheduled for today. The US National Association of Realtors is set to publish the monthly home sales at 1400GMT. However, this release has generally muted effect on the market.
EUR/USD approaches trend-line
By Monday morning, the Euro had reached the combined resistance of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, a trend-line and the weekly R1 in the 1.1755/1.1800 range. Technical indicators flash bearish signals, demonstrating that the rate should respect this cluster and move lower.
Given that no important fundamental releases are scheduled today, it is unlikely that the 1.1680 mark is breached due to various SMAs located there.
Hourly Chart
The massive decline which started mid-April was stopped by the bottom boundary of the senior channel a strong support level near 1.1550.
The general tendency in the long term should be northwards. In terms of resistance, it is likely that the 55-day SMA and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1740 provide a strong barrier in July.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 56% of open positions being long for today (-4%) . This sentiment has been fluctuating around the 60% mark for a couple of weeks now, demonstrating that traders are still expecting the Euro to strengthen against the Greenback in the medium and long term.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 54% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish.
OANDA traders have abandoned their bullish sentiment which has become neutral, compared to 56% on Friday. The same situation is apparent with Saxo Bank. If the pair manages to remain in the bearish territory within the following trading sessions, this might show that traders are gradually abandoning their long positions and a decline might be in sight.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility