- 52% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to SELL the Pound
- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bullish (+2%)
- Upcoming fundamental events: UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate; US Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production m/m; Fed Chair Powell Testifies
The 200-hour SMA is likely to guide the pair in this session.
The Census Bureau released monthly Retail Sales data that came out better-than-expected of 0.5%, compare to forecasted 0.4%.
Pablo Piovano, an Economist from FXStreet, said: "In addition, the NY Empire State manufacturing index came in above expectations at 22.60 for the current month, a tad lower than June's 25.00 reading. Looking ahead, spot is poised to remain under scrutiny in light of headlines from the Trump-Putin meeting and the upcoming testimonies by Fed's J.Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday."
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
Fed in focus
Tuesday's trading session will start with monthly UK Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change and the Unemployment Rate to be released at 0830GMT.
The Federal Reserve is set to publish the US Capacity Utilisation Rate and the Industrial Production for the month of June at 1315GMT.
The main focus in this session is put on the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who is to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee at 1400GMT.
Join the Webinar: Webinar Platform
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD finds support near 1.3230
The GBP/USD exchange rate remained steady on Monday apart from some minor fluctuations mid-session. The pair was trading in a very narrow range between the monthly PP and weekly PPs. This demonstrates the equal force of bulls and bears none of which were able to set the direction during this time.If looking on the 4H chart, it seems that this lack of direction might continue in this session, as well, as the Pound remains stranded between the 55-, 100– and 200-period SMAs in the 1.3212/65 area.
Considering the nearby-located support barrier on the hourly time-frame, it is more likely that the pair tries to move higher today if no negative fundamentals change this assumption. The nearest resistance is a channel line or the weekly R1 at 1.3300 and 1.3365, respectively.
Hourly chart
By reviewing the daily chart of the GBP/USD pair, it was discovered that there exists a descending channel pattern that has been in action since the middle of April. The recent rebound managed to break this pattern.
Thus, it is assumed that there is a larger dominant pattern lacking from the picture, as the already broken pattern has to be a junior representation of a larger price movement.
Daily Chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Bullish sentiment remains strong
The SWFX market sentiment has remained bullish, currently standing at 63% (+2%). Likewise, the pending orders in 58% of cases are set to buy the Pound (+6%).
This indicates that for the last couple of trading sessions nothing has changed. Retail traders remain bullish and some even expect to open more long positions, if the currency rate reaches certain criteria. For example, it breaks the resistance on the daily chart.
The bullish market sentiment of OANDA has increased, as 70% of its traders are holding long positions (+1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same bullish sentiment with 63% of positions being long today (-1%).
This indicates that for the last couple of trading sessions nothing has changed. Retail traders remain bullish and some even expect to open more long positions, if the currency rate reaches certain criteria. For example, it breaks the resistance on the daily chart.
The bullish market sentiment of OANDA has increased, as 70% of its traders are holding long positions (+1%). Saxo Bank clients share the same bullish sentiment with 63% of positions being long today (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility