- SWFX market sentiment is 61% bullish (-1%)
- 60% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: US (Core) Durable Goods Orders m/m, FOMC Member Quarles to speak
The Euro is likely to find support at 1.1615 today.
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US Building data release on Tuesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost two pips, or 0.02%, to continue fluctuating in
the 1.5596 area.
The Census Bureau released Residential Building Permits data that came lower-than-expected with a forecast of 1.35M in May, and lower from the previous period.
A survey showed that builders are: "..increasingly concerned that tariffs placed on Canadian lumber and other imported products are hurting housing affordability."
US Core Durable Goods
The US Census Bureau is set to publish the Durable Goods Orders and its core reading at 1230GMT. The market expects that the Core Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.5% in May, compared to a 0.9% increase during the preceding month.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles is set to speak about financial regulation at the Utah Bankers Association Annual Convention at 1500GMT.
EUR/USD EUR/USD trades near 1.16
The Euro began to weaken against the US Dollar early on Tuesday after failing to move above the considerable resistance of the weekly R1 and the senior channel near 1.1720. A large fall did not follow, as the pair was restricted by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. This minor depreciation left the pair testing the 1.1645 mark this morning.Technical indicators are still tended south that should point to further decline. However, traders should consider the strong support cluster formed by the 200-hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs and the weekly PP circa 1.1615. This could hinder or even halt any attempts to move below this level, thus reversing the Euro back to the upside.
Today's highest point should be the aforementioned 1.1720 territory, while a bearish fall is unlikely to exceed 1.16.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks. The pair started to recover on May 30 after hitting a six-month low of 1.1550. It is expected that this up-move continues in the medium term.
The pair has fluctuated in the 1.1545/1.1800 range since mid-May. The 1.18 mark should eventually surrender, thus allowing the pair to appreciate until the 200-day SMAs and the monthly R1 near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 61% of open positions being long (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 56% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish. The data indicates that the surge of the currency exchange rate occurs due to changes in the strength of both currencies simultaneously.
Despite decreasing SWFX sentiment, OANDA traders continue to strengthen their bullish positions which were standing at 57% early on Wednesday (+2%). The same tendency is apparent with Saxo Bank clients who have increased the number of long positions to 53% (+1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility