GBP/AUD 4H Chart: Channel Down

While in the one-hour chart the Pound seems to be moving upwards versus the Aussie, the long-term outlook is fairly bearish in the four-chart for the same cross. Just before weekend, GBP/AUD managed to touch a resistance represented by 200-period SMA at 2.11, which is currently backed by the monthly PP. Following that, we saw a bounce back into the 2.08-2.09 area. Given that technical indicators are mostly GBP-negative and the UK currency is moderately overbought in the SWFX market (57% of all positions are long), we tend to believe a depreciation will continue. However, both 55/100-period SMAs and weekly S1 should be violated, before the focus shifts to the current December low at 2.0341.