© Dukascopy Bank SA
The pattern started on the 1st of June, 2012, when the pair dipped to 0.9582; currently it is trading at 1.0267; pattern's support is at 1.0158; pattern's tops are in 1.0601/25 area. Trading volume is decreasing in the length of the pattern. Long traders, who expect that we might see a reversal, could focus on the daily pivot (PP) at 1.0345, and few clusters of resistance levels. First one at 1.0389/433 (200, 20 and 100 day SMA's and weekly pivot (R1) and the second one at 1.0547/635 (weekly pivot (R2), Bollinger band, pattern's tops and weekly pivot (R3)).
Technical indicators on aggregate point at depreciation of the pair suggesting it will continue moving towards pattern's support. Current market sentiment is strongly bearish as 57% of traders have sold the aussie versus the greenback and 61% of pending orders are to go short. Short traders could focus on the Bollinger band at 1.0255, weekly pivot (S1) at 1.0231 and pattern's support/daily pivot (S2) at 1.0158/43.
Main fundamental events which could have significant impact on pairs development in the near future are G20 meetings on 15th of February and Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes on 18th of February.
© Dukascopy Bank SA