Despite the clearly bullish market sentiment, pairs development in the first days of this week signals about significant weakness.
Last week was a rather volatile one for the pair and we could expect similar setting this week as well.
Pair started the week in a calm fashion and although we could sense further strength of the pair coming from the last week monthly R1 stopped the pair for now
The resistance, consisting of the weekly and monthly R1, was insufficient to halt yesterday's advancement.
Yesterday USD/CAD touched upon the monthly S1 level at 1.0253 and in the end closed beneath the weekly S2, as the bearish pressure on the nearest supports persists.
Apparently, the bulls are not willing to give up, pushing the exchange rate all the way back up to a tough resistance zone at 0.9348/16 from the support formed by the weekly pivot point and the 20-day SMA at 0.9182/68.
EUR/JPY has not yet fallen down to the 55 and 100-day SMAs at 129.69/51, but is decisively headed south.
Pair received a bearish impetus from the 200-day SMA which sent the pair almost 100 pips lower where it found support with the Fibo 23.6% (end of May till mid of June move).
Pair has been trading around 100 JPY for quite some time, but today, for the first time in 10 days , pair seems to be consolidating below the 99 JPY.
Pair is stuck below Fibo 61.8% (mid of June till start of July move) for 5 days now.
After a failure to breach weekly R1 pair received a bullish impetus from the Fibo 61.8% (mid of June till beginning of July move) which sent the pair 130 pips higher to test weekly R2/monthly R3.
As expected, a test of the support at 0.7904/0.7885 resulted in a strong recovery, which pushed the price up to the resistance consisting of the weekly and monthly R1 levels, also the upper Bollinger band.
Not so long ago USD/CAD broke down the 55-day SMA, now the currency pair is trying to erode a senior simple moving average, namely for 100 days.
The selling pressure that inhabits the area from 0.94 to 0.93 easily fended off a yesterday's assault of AUSD/USD, sending the pair beneath the interim resistance at 0.9182/58 that is formed by the weekly PP and 20-day SMA.
The currency pair did not manage to stay above the resistance at 132.19 for long and fell down to the weekly pivot point at 131.23, which safeguards 130.54/23.
Pair did not manage to consolidate below or above the 200-day SMA in the last 4 days.
Although long term technicals point at the strength of the pair, it has not been able to consolidate above 100 JPY in the past 20 days.
Pair did not manage to breach Fibo 61.8% (mid-June till start of the July sell off) after testing it for three days in a row.
After yesterdays failure to breach weekly R1 pair is retesting it today.
It seems that the initial attempt to climb over the resistance at 0.8039/22 will be unsuccessful—the currency pair slid 35 pips today and should not find any notable supports until it reaches 0.7904/0.7885—the down-trend, weekly PP and 55-day SMA.
In the end USD/CAD has effortlessly pierced through some of the nearest supports, violation of which exposed 1.0277—a combination of the 100-day SMA and the down-trend support line.
As expected, the currency pair was unable to push through the cluster of resistances that stretches from the 2012 low at 0.9387 down to the upper Bollinger band at 0.9302.
EUR/JPY has just soared beyond the monthly R1, confirming its near-term bullish outlook.
Last few trading sessions pointed out a significant downside risk of the pair.