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The weekly chart shows that the pair has bumped into the 61.80% Fibonacci Expansion at 15.2033 and is squeezed in between the expansion and the Gann angle. A downward sloping channel is consistently broken to the upside, making the motion steep and suggesting it might be time to subside. We would expect this week to close with a small green candle below the expansion and then potentially enter a flattish motion with a little more risk skewed to the downside. An attractive crossover of the Fibonacci Fan Arc, 50% retracement and Gann angle at 14.50 could come into play late February. Although there has been a bearish crossover of SMAs beneath, little credibility should be assigned to the signal due to the lagging nature of the indicators and the recent bullish reversal. We move on to the daily chart to seek conclusive support for our expectations.
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A broken junior channel emerges on the daily chart, suggesting that a steep southward motion should extend from here. Additionally, the pair has exited a Pitchfork, drawn from the latest slope, pointing in the same direction. A bearish Harami candle sends the same signal. The 100-day SMA is approaching a confluence point with the 200-day SMA, but we do not expect a crossover to happen, given our slightly bearish scenario.
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In addition, the hourly chart shows a combination of patterns that both show risk skewed south, namely – a senior channel down and junior rising wedge. The pair has just touched the upper trend-line of the channel and is about to break the wedge to the downside, simultaneously distancing itself from the broken senior channel up from the daily chart. SMAs will mess with the bearish momentum at 15.15/13, but the goal will ultimately be 15.06, the bottom boundary of the pattern.
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