Monthly Chart
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The pair has entered a tight red cloud and currently seeking resistance at the upper boundary of it. Some of the momentum has been stolen by the Fibonacci Expansion of the latest fall, leaving little to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 85.82. The expansion has conclusively pointed 75.29 as a level of significance which the pair has not been able to dive under. Late December marks the crossing of the retracement and the Fibonacci Fan arc, which has been quite consistent in guiding the downward motion. We consider the arcs to have quite some degree of credibility, based on the precision with which they have been signalling reversals about four candles before they occur. We therefore see AUD/JPY ranging late December and extending an upward motion just to again reverse four to five candles after the fan arc is reached to dive steeply, potentially through the retracement – Gann angle cluster, in February.
Weekly Chart
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Given the aforementioned technical trends, we see 88.72/89.10 tackled in April, if the uptrend is sustainably extended. With the retracement being the midpoint of the respective motion, the level gains even more significance. In case the pair again enters a ranging market, the 100% Fibonacci Expansion, Fan Arc and Gann angle crossover around 83.55 could show its presence in late May.
Four-hour Chart
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We now turn to the four-hour chart to gain some short-term insights. A rising wedge shows support to our scenario, meaning that a break below could signal some trouble, and a short-term dip could take place as part of the larger-scope consolidation. Additionally, a Pitchfork whose bottom trend-line coincides with the wedge, has seen the pair stick, abandoning the median line for the last few days. A return to the median would cast doubt on the bearish potential built up in the wedge, but for now, we look for the 85.00 area to break.
Aggregate Technical Indicators
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