EUR/USD held gains despite hawkish FOMC

EUR/USD gained value on Wednesday, despite hawkish FOMC meeting minutes mentioning a potential rate hike in December. A rally is being extended on Thursday, with the pair trading above 1.07. Any bullish outlook can become the main scenario only in case EUR/USD surges past July low at 1.0808. Our medium term expectations remain fairly pessimistic with respect to the single European currency. Consolidation below 1.06 (weekly S2) is required, in order to completely refocus on April low at 1.0519.

Bullish share contracted from 56% to 54% in the SWFX market by Thursday morning. Meanwhile, pending orders to buy the Euro in 100-pip range from the spot price surged above 50% (to 52%) for the first time in more than two weeks.