EUR/USD retreats to 1.29

EUR/USD did not manage to reach last year's low yesterday and returned to the monthly S2 at 1.29, which is now acting as a ceiling. Nevertheless, the overall bias is to the downside, and the currency pair is unlikely to bottom out near the support at 1.2750. The bears are expected to take the price much lower, potentially down to the 2012 low at 1.2050, before there is a major reversal of the present downward trend.

Right now a majority of the SWFX market participants is expecting the European currency to outperform the U.S. Dollar—60% of open positions are long. As for the orders, there has been a large increase in the share of sell orders—from 46 up to 63%.