USD/JPY struggles with the 55-day SMA

Pair started the week in a mildly bullish fashion, but first resistance, the 55-day SMA, proved to be enough of an obstacle. Pair short and medium term outlook remains neutral, suggesting it should trade between the 55-day SMA and the weekly PP for some time. Despite the bullish outlook given by the long term technicals we do not believe that the pair will brake out of the downtrend it has been since the beginning of July easily. Solid consolidation above the 100-day SMA could uplift most of this downside risk.

For quite some time the share of the bulls in the market has not fallen below the 70% gauge. Lately we are seeing slightly different view. At the moment bulls account for 67% (-2% during the weekend) of market participants. Majority (63%) of pending orders, however, are set in favour of the bulls.