EUR/USD weakens ahead of 1.3131

A support area, formed by a combination of the 20 and 200-day SMAs, has successfully managed to repel bearish attack of the price and subsequently initiated a recovery. However, this rally appears to have difficulties around the weekly pivot point at 1.3131. If the up-trend is to be extended, EUR/USD will encounter the 100-day SMA at 1.3156 and Bollinger band at 1.3184; otherwise we will see a re-test of 1.3076/67.

Amid small fluctuations in the ratio of bullish and bearish market participants, the overall sentiment stays distinctly negative—only 40% of positions are long, the rest (60%) are accordingly short. At the same time there is largely no change in the share of those willing to acquire the Euro in the future (53%).