EUR/USD passes support levels

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA


The EUR/USD attempted to pass the resistance of the 1.1190/1.1200 range for a second time, before failing. The failure was followed by a broader decline, which passed the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, broke the ascending channel pattern, reached below the weekly simple pivot point. However, then the 1.1100/1.1105 range held, and it appeared that the rate might recover.

On Thursday morning, a previously not noted macroeconomic data release caused a major Euro decline. The publication of the Spanish Flash CPI revealed information that inflation in the Euro Zone might be far below what was previously assumed.

The Spanish Flash CPI was expected to show a stunning decline of inflation, down to 2.4% from the previous 2.8%. The actual data was 2.2%, which is almost at the ECB target. Moreover, note that inflation in Spain has been steadily declining. It has decreased from 3.6% in May down to 2.2% over the span of three months.

Namely, the European Central Bank might easily increase their rate cut program. Due to the signal of potential increased weakening of Euro rates, the EUR/USD plummeted 40 base points or 0.36% in the ten minutes following the release.

A continuation of the decline might stop near the weekly S1 simple pivot point at 1.1076 or the support ranges near 1.1050 and 1.1000.

On the other hand, a potential recovery is set to face major resistance. The 1.1100 mark could slow down the rate first, before it reaches the combination of the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages that are approaching the weekly simple pivot point at 1.1138. Higher above, note the 1.1160/1.1175 and 1.1190/1.1200 zones.
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