Markets underestimate risks of U.K. exit

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"Those people within Labour who've argued for a referendum overwhelmingly see it as a means of refreshing consent rather than securing an exit. That's pretty different from the Conservative Party." 
- Douglas Alexander, Labour foreign affairs spokesman 

Prime Minister David Cameron is planning a vote on Britain's membership in the European Union after the 2015 elections. However, nation's Labour Party has already pledged not to support this vote, ending high-level debate over changing its stance to the Conservatives ahead of the upcoming election. This decision leaves Cameron's Conservatives as the only big party, which expressed its commitment to an in/out vote. In January Cameron claimed he would seek a new EU deal for the country and hold a membership referendum by the end of 2017. However, critics said the leading bloc has become too powerful posing a threat to the sovereignty. 

Meanwhile, Britain's membership in the European Union is a case not only for Europe, as nation's exit could have a strong downside effect on such economies like Japan. To date, it is estimated that over 1,300 Japanese companies have invested in the U.K. - a figure much bigger than the volume of investment in other EU countries. Moreover, those businesses have created about 150,000 jobs in the U.K. Hence Britain's participation in the European Union is a clear concern for Japanese government. Even a slight Japanese disinvestment in the U.K. would have a strong negative impact on the nations' bilateral ties, while the situation in the labour market will deteriorate significantly. Therefore, this fact should be made clear to the voting public during the pre-referendum publicity campaigns. 

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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