© Dukascopy Bank
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Antje Praefcke
Senior FX Strategist
Commerzbank
Sweden currently takes advantage of the very sound fundamentals, including solid public finances and a very low government debt. In the 90s Sweden experienced a hard real estate crisis and has driven lessons out of that situation.
However, the Swedish Krona is quite linked to the Eurozone economy which means that if we expect the Eurozone economy to fall into recession this year, we will see the impact on the Swedish economy as well, although it should demonstrate quite a good resilience against the weakness of the Euro area. Nevertheless, the Swedish Krona will show a good performance against the Euro throughout 2012. Only if the risk aversion rises on the financial markets, then the Krona may come under pressure. It will be a moderate appreciation of the Swedish Krona against the Euro, but it is going to be a quite choppy and volatile way and we will witness some setbacks towards the 9 mark against the Euro. We believe that by the end of 2012 EUR/SEK will be traded around 8.80 again.