Gold price declines to $1,185

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
{ATTACHMENT}Yesterday the price of Gold dropped as much as 0.43% in its price over the trading day and was one of many commodities that declined in course of the trading session. Corn added further value to rise 1.10%, while Brent plummeted 6.65% on news that OPEC will not decrease extraction of oil. Despite lack of fundamental news and the Bank holiday in the US, the metal's price was mainly driven by other factors, including the mentioned falling price of oil. Cheaper black gold will lead to advance in demand, underlying stronger economic growth across the world and putting more pressure on safe haven metals including gold.

Among statistical data from world's major economies, German unemployment change was better than estimated in October, while unemployment rate in the country slipped to 6.6%. Moreover consumer climate in Germany advanced to a four-month high at 8.7 points.

Fresh outflows from bullion-backed funds including SPDR Gold shares, where holdings shrank 2.1 tonnes to 718.82 tonnes, reaching near six-year low, added to the downside pressure on gold. Traders also remain cautious ahead of this weekend's referendum in Switzerland on central bank's gold assets. Five million Swiss voters will decide whether the Swiss National Bank has to repatriate all its gold from vaults in the UK and Canada, where there are around 30% of Swiss gold reserves, and make sure that at least 20% of its assets are held in gold. The central bank may also be prohibited from selling any of its gold reserves.





Important US data on Monday to have impact on Gold

The price of Gold is likely to remain volatile to any important fundamentals in the beginning of the first week of December. As expected, US data will show activity in the manufacturing sector of the country. The same indicator will be released for Germany, the Eurozone and Britain. Japanese statistical authorities will publish announce a pace of expansion in monetary base, as it is likely to increase, following new QE announcements from the Bank of Japan earlier in November.
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XAU/USD to decrease trading range by the end of 2014

The long-term outlook for the XAU/USD cross remains bearish, taking into account the recent US dollar's bullish tendency across the market. It seems that the Gold is entering a descending triangle pattern against the Buck, meaning that trading range o the pair is likely to decrease. From above the long-term downtrend line is located around $1,220, while a support in face of 2014 low is placed at $1,131. In the first week of December we can expect the Gold to rise up to the trend-line; however, later we would suggest the metal to decline, especially if more optimistic fundamental news are released across the world.

Daily chart
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At the moment of writing gold for immediate delivery traded at $1185.15 an ounce, with the Friday session's low at $1,181.67. The yellow metal fell 1.6% during the week, extending losses from $1,207.93 on November 21, the highest level in three weeks. The spot hit the daily S1, which is supporting the price of the bullion at levels mentioned above. In case of positive international economic news, the spot will grow back to $1,191 in the day-time. Otherwise, a minor decline to weekly S2 a $1,177 will take place in the foreseeable future.

Hourly chart
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Market sentiment strongly bullish on Gold versus Greenback

Advantage of bulls over bears on the SWFX market remains rather strong. For the time being as many as 58.63% of market participants are holding long positions on the yellow metal. Yesterday the indicator for bulls stayed around 57%.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA

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