On July 7, at 12:30 GMT, the US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
On July 12, watch out for the US Consumer Price Index release. The CPI and Core CPI are the main US indicators for inflation and subsequently impact the US future monetary policy and the US Dollar's value.
On July 13, the US Producer Price Index data will reveal how inflation is doing at the producer level. Usually, increases in producer prices result in an increase of prices at the consumer level, as the wholesalers just charge their buyers more.
On July 18, the US Retail Sales might impact the US Dollar by revealing surprise in how the US consumers are buying goods. In general, the number shows a change in retail sales in percentage. The change can be impacted by a different sales volume or price changes.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
A continuation of the ongoing decline of the metal's price is expected to find support in the 1,910.00, 1,905.00 levels and most importantly the 1,895.00/1,900.00 range. On a broader scale, the commodity price could follow the pattern and reach the 1,850.00 level by the end of July. A potential decline could find support in the 1,885.00 and 1,875.00 levels, as these levels acted as support and resistance in late March.
However, a surge of the metal would have to break the combination of the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, the 1,920.00 and 1,930.00 levels and the zones that surround them, and the upper trend line of the channel pattern. In the case of the pattern being broken, the 1,940.00 and 1,950.00 levels are expected to act as resistance.
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal has found additional support in the 200-day simple moving average. Meanwhile, note that the 1,880.00 level has been marked on the chart, as it has impacted the commodity price during the last couple of years.Meanwhile, resistance is being provided by the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages near 1,960.00/1,970.00. In addition, the 1,955.00/1,965.00 range was expected to act as resistance.
Daily Candle Chart
Watch changes in sentiment
The sentiment index table provides data on the current open position proportion on the Swiss Foreign Exchange. In general, one can mark changes in sentiment and see where the traders are moving into.
One can spot trends, changes in direction and oversold/overbought conditions.