- Opened positions for Gold are strongly positive (73% bullish / 27% bearish)
- It is possible that Gold will grow in price, with the closest resistance for it located at 1,205
- At the same time, the probability of a downside movement exists as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1,192
- Upcoming events on January 2: Spanish Unemployment Change and Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI
Gold soared on Wednesday, trading firmly above $1,200 an ounce, as concerns about Greece's future membership in the Euro bloc provoked a sell-off in equities and increased demand for the yellow metal. Bullion is set to end the year largely flat after a turbulent 2013, when prices fell 28%, the first decline in 13 years. Physical demand for the precious metal was also increased due to the holiday season and upcoming Lunar New Year in China, when gold is bought for good fortune and as a gift.
US consumer confidence edged up in December, as households became more optimistic about the domestic economy amid falling oil prices, which make families feel more confident about their finances, as well as ameliorating jobs market, which is set to provide the most job vacancies in 15 years. The consumer confidence index edged up to 92.6 points in December, while analysts had expected 94 points, and following a revised 91.0 points from 88.7 in November, the Conference Board reported.
European data to be main driver for Gold on January 2
As markets are going to be closed on the first day of the year 2015, any changes are expected to take place on January 2, when some important European statistical data will be published. First of all, Spanish statistical authorities will releases numbers on unemployment change and activity in the manufacturing industry of the country in December. This data will be followed by Italian, pan-Eurozone's and British manufacturing PMIs. Later, the US Institute for Supply Management will release the PMI indicator for production sector in the United States.XAU/USD returns back below down-trend
The XAU/USD cross has breached the most important resistance line, represented by the long-term downtrend and developed above this level for the past week. However, on December 15 Gold returned back, mostly amid fundamental factors. At the moment the most considerable resistance is represented by this long-term downtrend line, which is currently located at $1,225 and strengthened by the 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Daily chart
On Tuesday, Gold has unexpectedly jumped due to political tensions in Greece, which increased demand for the safe-haven metal. The bullion managed to climb even above the weekly R1 at $1,209, but returned back below the monthly R1 and closed the trading session on the major level of $1,200. From technical point of view, the yellow metal is now supported by a cluster of support levels, including monthly and weekly PP, which are unlikely to let Gold decline considerably. Technical indicators, however, are remaining broadly bearish.
Hourly chart
Long opened positions climbed to 73%
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Nov 31 and Dec 31 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,200 by the mid-March. At the same time, 51% of them believe the bullion will be above this mark in three months, while slightly less than one third of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.