- Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price remain negative (48% bullish / 52% bearish)
- In case the pair increases in price, the closest resistance for it is located at 1.2468
- The downward movement is possible as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1.2400
Industrial production across the 18 member states that share the Euro increased for a second consecutive month in October, albeit at a slower pace than expected. The output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities in the Euro zone climbed 0.1%, compared with am downwardly revised 0.5% in the preceding month and analysts' forecasts for a 0.2% rise. On an annual basis, industrial production increased 0.7%, up from September's downwardly revised 0.2% and in line with analysts' expectations. The recent data highlights the pessimistic sentiment in the Euro region, where stagnation and unhealthy-low inflation put more pressure on the ECB policy makers to deploy more aggressive stimulus in the near term.
Meanwhile, political tensions intensify in Greece, where Greek Premier Antonis Samaras warned that a possible fall of his government could push the country out of the Euro zone, the event which may dangerously complicate of potential full-scale quantitative easing in the Euro area. A parliamentary vote, due to begin next week, to replace the Greek president may trigger general elections in the new year, elections which the anti-bailout party Syriza could win. Samaras said that Syriza's its members are violating the constitution spirit and warned that the party's ‘statist' plans could lead Greece out of the Eurozone.
German economic sentiment to have major impact on Euro tomorrow
The second day of the present working week is going to bring a number of very important economic indicators from the Eurozone, which are likely to have the impact on EUR/USD currency pair and other EUR crosses. ZEW Institute will publish data on economic sentiment in Germany, which is expected to rebound considerably to 20 points in December. Besides that, Markit will release the monthly manufacturing PMI Index for the Eurozone's largest economy.EUR/USD to trade around 1.24 during next few days
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD remains bearish, even though the currency pair has recently breached the long-term downtrend line, which used to be a considerable resistance for the cross. Moreover, it has reached the December high at 1.2494. However, any negative impetus will push the cross down below this important level, with a long-term goal located at 1.2246 (2014 low) for the time being. From the upside, the next major supply zone is placed around the 1.26 level (23.6% Fibo, Bollinger band, 55-day SMA). Nevertheless, we would assume the EUR/USD pair is going to consolidate around the 1.24 mark for some period of time.Daily chart
EUR/USD currency pair appreciated during the last trading day of the previous week, as it approached a considerable resistance line, represented by the monthly pivot point at 1.2468. We do not expect the cross to breach this important level, which is likely to push the Euro downwards. Technical indicators, in turn, predict the pair will hover around the current levels for the next 24 hours, even though suggesting a decline in the medium-term.
Hourly chart
Both opened positions and pending orders remain bearish
Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price, however, improved significantly to be positive in 48% of all cases, even though they remained on the negative territory. It implies that, in case the pair gains value, in the medium-term it may be stopped by the 55-day SMA at 1.2546.
On the other hand, if the pair declines, the bearish pressure is likely to strengthen and extend losses below the weekly pivot point at 1.24.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community expects Euro to preserve bearish momentum
RacerX, one of the community members participating in the survery, motivates his bearish bias towards the common currency by saying that the ECB "will put off further action until the beginning of next year". He also does not suppose "there will be any major shifts in the fundamentals" and added that "any neutral news will only continue to strengthen the dollar".
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Nov 15 and Dec 15 expect, on average, to see the currency pair at 1.2328 by the mid-March. Though the largest portion of participants, namely 26% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down to the 1.22/1.20 region in sixty days. On top of that, 28% of the surveyed reckon the price will fall below 1.20 by the end of the first quarter of the next year.